My Oscar Predictions 2014

This year has more debatable predictions than any Oscar telecast in the past several years. While one part of me is glad for the unexpectedness, this other part of me hates that my ballot isn't assured as I wish it were. Keep reading for my commentary or skip to the bottom for my picks.

Let's get the technical awards out of the way: Gravity will get a LOT. Great Gatsby may get Production Design/Costume. My gut is going with American Hustle and 12 Years A Slave somewhere in there, but my ballot is going with Gatsby and Gravity.

 

Close Calls (descending from "hardest to predict" to "more assured pick"):
 

1. Best Documentary Short - This is the one I grappled with the longest. Almost all my sources said Lady In Number 6 will get it. But I feel like they may be relying too heavily on its Holocaust theme. One source (who had seen all of them) said Prison Terminal was the most well-made and aimed most at Academy voters. I'm sure they're right, but I'm going to go with Lady In Number 6. This year, I'm betting on my sources rather than my gut.
 

2. Best Short Film (live action) - Everyone who's seen them says Just Before Losing Everything is the most powerful, but Helium has the most heart. The Voorman Problem has the most recognition apparently and stars Martin Freeman. I finally just had to decide on one and went with Helium. Academy voters like their heart strings pulled, right?

3. Best Actor - Leo, Chiwetel, or McConaughey. I was championing Leo all the way, but *everyone* is saying McConaughey. My gut says Chiwetel for 12 Years A Slave. It's a three-horse race, so I'm going with the "wisdom of crowds" on this one.
 

4. Best Documentary - A lot of my sources are saying Netflix's The Square. 20 Feet From Stardom has the same appeal as last year's Searching For Sugar Man (which people attribute to mass voting rather than select voting [the same thing being done this year]). I'm going with The Act of Killing though, because it seems everyone who's seen it is just blown away by it, even though Academy voters may find it too difficult/controversial.

5. Best Original Screenplay - I got it down to American Hustle or Her. I'm going with Her because of the awarding of originality and Jonze. If it were Russell, it'd be honorary for American Hustle not getting Best Picture or Best Director.

 

6. Best Foreign Film - My sources are split among Broken Circle Breakdown, The Great Beauty, and The Hunt. But The Great Beauty is getting the recognition only slightly more than the other two, so that's who I'm going for.

7. Best Supporting Actress - My sources are split between Lupita and Jennifer Lawrence. I'm going with Lupita beacause Lawrence won last year, doesn't have the new talent attraction that comes with the award (which seems more fitting for Lupita), and, well, politics.

 

And now for my predictions (indicated by *):

 

Best Picture

• *12 Years a Slave
• The Wolf of Wall Street
• Captain Phillips
• Her
• American Hustle
• Gravity
• Dallas Buyers Club
• Nebraska
• Philomena

Best Director

• Steve McQueen -- "12 Years a Slave"
• David O. Russell -- "American Hustle"
• *Alfonso Cuaron -- "Gravity"
• Alexander Payne -- "Nebraska"
• Martin Scorsese -- "The Wolf of Wall Street"

 

Best Actor

• Bruce Dern -- "Nebraska"
• Chiwetel Ejiofor -- "12 Years a Slave"
• *Matthew McConaughey -- "Dallas Buyers Club"
• Leonardo DiCaprio -- "The Wolf of Wall Street"
• Christian Bale -- "American Hustle"

Best Actress

• Amy Adams -- "American Hustle"
• *Cate Blanchett -- "Blue Jasmine"
• Judi Dench -- "Philomena"
• Sandra Bullock -- "Gravity"
• Meryl Streep -- "August: Osage County"

 

Best Supporting Actor

• Barkhad Abdi -- "Captain Phillips"
• Bradley Cooper -- "American Hustle"
• Jonah Hill -- "The Wolf of Wall Street"
• *Jared Leto -- "Dallas Buyers Club"
• Michael Fassbender -- "12 Years a Slave"

 

Best Supporting Actress

• Jennifer Lawrence -- "American Hustle"
• *Lupita Nyong'o -- "12 Years a Slave"
• June Squibb -- "Nebraska"
• Julia Roberts -- "August: Osage County"
• Sally Hawkins -- "Blue Jasmine"

 

Best Original Screenplay

• American Hustle -- David O. Russell and Eric Warren Singer
• Blue Jasmine -- Woody Allen
• *Her -- Spike Jonze
• Nebraska -- Bob Nelson
• Dallas Buyers Club -- Craig Borten and Melisa Wallack

 

Best Adapted Screenplay

• *12 Years a Slave -- John Ridley
• Before Midnight -- Julie Delpy, Ethan Hawke and Richard Linklater
• The Wolf of Wall Street -- Terence Winter
• Captain Phillips -- Billy Ray
• Philomena -- Steve Coogan and Jeff Pope

 

Best Animated Feature

• The Wind Rises
• *Frozen
• Despicable Me 2
• Ernest & Celestine
• The Croods

 

Best Foreign Feature

• The Hunt (Denmark)
• The Broken Circle Breakdown (Belgium)
• *The Great Beauty (Italy)
• Omar (Palestinian territories)
• The Missing Picture (Cambodia)

 

Best Music (Original Song)

• *Frozen: "Let it Go" -- Robert Lopez and Kristen Anderson-Lopez
• Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom: "Ordinary Love" -- U2, Paul Hewson
• Her: "The Moon Song" -- Karen O, Spike Jonze
• Despicable Me 2: "Happy" -- Pharrell Williams

 

Best Music (Original Score)

• *Gravity -- Steven Price
• Philomena -- Alexandre Desplat
• The Book Thief -- John Williams
• Saving Mr. Banks -- Thomas Newman
• Her -- William Butler and Owen Pallett

 

Best Cinematography

• *Gravity -- Emmanuel Lubezki
• Inside Llewyn Davis -- Bruno Delbonnel
• Nebraska -- Phedon Papamichael
• Prisoners -- Roger Deakins
• The Grandmaster -- Phillippe Le Sourd

 

Best costume design

• *The Great Gatsby -- Catherine Martin
• 12 Years a Slave -- Patricia Norris
• The Grandmaster -- William Chang Suk Ping
• American Hustle -- Michael Wilkinson
• The Invisible Woman -- Michael O'Connor

 

Best Documentary Feature

• *The Act of Killing
• 20 Feet From Stardom
• The Square
• Cutie and the Boxer
• Dirty Wars

Best Film Editing

• *Gravity -- Alfonso Cuaron, Mark Sanger
• 12 Years a Slave-- Joe Walker
• Captain Phillips -- Christopher Rouse
• American Hustle -- Jay Cassidy, Crispin Struthers and Alan Baumgarten
• Dallas Buyers Club -- John Mac McMurphy and Martin Pensa

 

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

• The Lone Ranger -- Joel Harlow and Gloria Pasqua-Casny
• Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa -- Stephen Prouty
• *Dallas Buyers Club -- Adruitha Lee and Robin Mathews

 

Best Production Design

• 12 Years a Slave -- Adam Stockhausen and Alice Baker
• *The Great Gatsby -- Catherine Martin and Beverley Dunn
• American Hustle -- Judy Becker and Heather Loeffler
• Gravity -- Andy Nicholson, Rosie Goodwin and Joanne Woollard
• Her -- K.K. Barrett and Gene Serdena

 

Best Visual Effects

• *Gravity
• The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug
• Star Trek Into Darkness
• Iron Man 3
• The Lone Ranger

Best Sound Mixing

• *Gravity
• Captain Phillips
• Lone Survivor
• Inside Llewyn Davis
• The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug

Best Sound Editing

• *Gravity
• All Is Lost
• Captain Phillips
• Lone Survivor
• The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug

Best Short Film, Live Action

• Aquel No Era Yo (That Wasn't Me)
• Avant Que De Tout Perdre (Just Before Losing Everything)
• *Helium
• Pitaako Mun Kaikki Hoitaa? (Do I Have to Take Care of Everything?)
• The Voorman Problem

Best Short Film, Animated

• Feral
• *Get a Horse!
• Mr. Hublot
• Possessions
• Room on the Broom

Best Documentary Short

• CaveDigger
• Facing Fear
• Karama Has No Walls
• *The Lady in Number 6: Music Saved My Life
• Prison Terminal: The Last Days of Private Jack Hall

 

 

Alright, folks! See you Sunday, 4pm PST/7pm EST on ABC!